Recent Tweets from Place du Luxembourg
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- Oh well, guess I was wrong... The ECB appears to indeed have abias for action, even if it is useless. ecb.int/press/pr/date/… 2 weeks ago
- "Why I think the ECB is not about to cut the MRO rate" placeduluxembourg.wordpress.com/2013/05/01/why… 2 weeks ago
- "Why I think the ECB is not about to cut the MRO rate" placeduluxembourg.wordpress.com/2013/05/01/why… 2 weeks ago
- Sticking my neck out: ECB will not cut tomorrow. Post explaining why to follow soon... ;) 3 weeks ago
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Author Archives: fmpdea
Why I think the ECB is not about to cut the MRO rate
On Thursday May 2nd, the Governing Council of the ECB will hold is monthly meeting to determine the path of monetary policy. The market consensus seems to be that the ECB will cut the refi rate (MRO rate). I disagree. … Continue reading
Posted in Banking, Current Events, ECB, Euro-zone Update, Finance, Media Coverage
Tagged Asmussen, Bank Lending Survey, Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission, Coeure, Constancio, Current Account at ECB, Deposit Facility, Draghi, ECB, ECB Balance Sheet, EONIA, GDP, Inflation, LTRO, M3, Marginal Lending Facility, Mersch, MRO, MRO rate cut, PMIs, Praet, refi rate cut, Target2, TARGET2 imbalances, Weidmann
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Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany
In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next … Continue reading
Posted in European National Politics
Tagged 2013. Austrian Elections 2013, Beppe Grillo, Berlusconi, Bulgaria, Calendars, CDU, Czech Republic, Der Linke, Elections, FDP, France, Germany, Greece, Hollande, Italy, Lithuania, Merkel, Monti, New Democracy, Papademos, PASOK, Pirate Party, Slovakia, Slovenia, SPD, Voter intention polls, Voter intention surveys
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The UK Referendum on EU Membership: Narrative, Economic Realities and Political Ambitions
As the the British Prime Minister is on the verge of announcing a referendum on continued UK membership of the EU, this post considers the narrative surrounding this issue and concludes that despite the arguments in favour or against, voter … Continue reading
Posted in European Integration, European Interdependences, European National Politics
Tagged Anders Borg, Boris Johnson, David Cameron, EU Referendum, Finance, Finland, International intergration, Netherlands, Referendum on UK Membership of the EU, Sweden, Trade, UK, UK interdependences with EU
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No Early Elections in Germany… But Almost?
In the Summer of 2011 I stuck my neck out and “predicted” early elections in Germany, ahead of the scheduled September 2013 deadline. I was wrong. However, and probably as a consolation gift to myself, I review some a sequence … Continue reading
Posted in Media Coverage, Risk Scenario Analysis, Uncategorized
Tagged Angela Merkel, Antagonism to Greece, bailout, CDU, Debt haircut, Euro-Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis, FDP, German attitudes to Greece, German Elections 2013, German Politics, Greece, Greek bailout, Haircut, Horst Seehofer, Mario Draghi, OMT, OMTs, Outright Monetary Transactions, Patrick Doering, Peter Ramsauer, Philipp Roesler, Rainer Bruederle, Summer 2012, Volker Kauder, Voter intention polls, Voter intention surveys
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Some Comments on the USA’s ISA
In a recent post discussing the Euro-Zone’s TARGET2, I made some reference to the equivalent clearing and settlement system in the USA without any depth because it was beyond the purview of that post. To address that gap, I dedicate … Continue reading
The European Banking Union Negotiations – Supervision
The banking union is a particularly important item in the long term reform agenda of the EU/Euro-Zone, and one that has often been neglected. In a crisis that is characterised by the linkages between public finances and the banking sectors, … Continue reading
Posted in Banking, ECB, European Integration, European Interdependences, Finance, Inflation, Sovereign debt Crisis, Week Ahead
Tagged Banking Union, Denmark, ECB, European Bank Deposit Guarantee, European Bank Deposit Guarantee Scheme, European Banking debt resolution, European Banking Supervision, European Banking Union, European Banking Union Negotiations, Financial Stability, France, Germany, Landesbank, Landesbanken, Price Stability, Scope of supervision, Spain, Sweden, UK, Voting rights
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A Brief Review of the Eurosystem’s TARGET2 Imbalances
This post is a long overdue look at the infamous TARGET2 (im)balances, which are yet another symptom of the ongoing malaise in the Euro-Zone. I do not claim to make any new contribution in this post, whose motivation was exclusively … Continue reading
Posted in Aides Memoire, Banking, ECB, Economic Concepts, Finance, Indicators, Inflation
Tagged Accounting, Assets, Balance of Payments, Banking Union, Banks, Buiter, Capital Flight, Central Banks, Clearing, Core, Corporates, Current Account Deficits, Deposit Facility, Deposit Flight, ECB, ECB Longer Term Refinancing Operations, ECB's Main Refinancing Operations, Equity, Euro, Euro-zone, Euro-Zone Banking Union, Eurosystem, Foreign deposit flight, Former Soviet Union Republic, Former Soviet Union Republics, FSURs, Germany, Households, ISA, Koning, Liabilities, LTRO, MRO, OMTs, Outright Monetary Transactions, overdrafts, Periphery, Ruble-Zone, Seignioreage, Settlements, Sinn, SOMA, Spain, Target2, TARGET2 imbalances
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The week ahead – 25.09.2012 – 05.10.2012
Here are the events for the coming week, with many thanks to Unicredit and to KBC, where you can find plenty of research, reviews of past events, and forecasts. There will be PMIs a-plenty to scare markets after the Spanish … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
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The Latest Greek Deal – Another Indictment of Intergovernmentalism
This will be a short one about the latest example of the uselessness of intergovernmentalism… So after two failed attempts at finding common ground on Greece on November 13th and on November 20th, the Eurogroup finally came to a provisional … Continue reading →