Category Archives: European National Politics

Challenges and the Future of Africa – What insights for Europe?

On Wednesday, October 8th 2014, I was among the audience of the Wincott Lecture (hosted by the eponymous Foundation at Local Government House in London) given by Professor Sir Paul Collier, author of “The Bottom Billion – Why the poorest … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Concepts, European Integration, European Interdependences, European National Politics, Political Concepts, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

3 lessons from the Scottish referendum: the insult, the fear and the pork – where to from here?

This post could have also been named “How to campaign: confirmation bias, framework effects and the flypaper effect“. But I’m trying to go for a less academic tone these days, so I thought I should at least give the post … Continue reading

Posted in European Integration, European National Politics, History, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

German Elections – Voter Intention Polls and FDP Blunders

This post reviews the recent voter intention polls in Germany,  the trends over the last 4 years,  the loss of popularity of the FDP and the pyrrhic success of the Greens.

Posted in Current Events, European National Politics, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next … Continue reading

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The UK Referendum on EU Membership: Narrative, Economic Realities and Political Ambitions

As the the British Prime Minister is on the verge of announcing a referendum on continued UK membership of the EU, this post considers the narrative surrounding this issue and concludes that despite the arguments in favour or against, voter … Continue reading

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Will Catalonia Become Independent Soon?

My answer to the question is no. Eventually I think it will, but not soon. Here’s why:

Posted in Current Events, European Integration, European National Politics, Risk Scenario Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments