Category Archives: European National Politics

German Elections – Voter Intention Polls and FDP Blunders

This post reviews the recent voter intention polls in Germany,  the trends over the last 4 years,  the loss of popularity of the FDP and the pyrrhic success of the Greens.

Posted in Current Events, European National Politics, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next … Continue reading

Posted in European National Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The UK Referendum on EU Membership: Narrative, Economic Realities and Political Ambitions

As the the British Prime Minister is on the verge of announcing a referendum on continued UK membership of the EU, this post considers the narrative surrounding this issue and concludes that despite the arguments in favour or against, voter … Continue reading

Posted in European Integration, European Interdependences, European National Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Will Catalonia Become Independent Soon?

My answer to the question is no. Eventually I think it will, but not soon. Here’s why:

Posted in Current Events, European Integration, European National Politics, Risk Scenario Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

Why Germans should support the Euro: TIBA, not TINA

I wish I had thought of writing this a long time ago, but unfortunately I did not. Hopefully this post will go some way towards providing a long overdue argument for the benefits of EMU membership to Germany. What I … Continue reading

Posted in European Interdependences, European National Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Implications of the Greek referendum proposal: Delay, not Default

On Monday, October 31, the Greek Prime Minister announced that it was his intention to lead Greece into holding a referendum, sometime in December 4 or 5, on whether to accept the recent bailout and debt haircut, according to major … Continue reading

Posted in European National Politics, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

A € for you thoughts(7): Nouriel Roubini

I believe that this article from Nouriel Roubini, at Project Sindicate, completes the post I previously wrote on the options for restructuring the (Greek) debt. In it he argues that ” A full-blown official bailout of Greece’s public sector (by … Continue reading

Posted in A € for your Thoughts, Current Events, European Interdependences, European National Politics, Sovereign debt Crisis | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

A note on the German Elections in March

I had a look around for the parliamentary situation in the German upper chamber, the Bundesrat, and realised, that if in the next month, the SPD manages to hold on to its majority in Rhineland Palatinate, and win in a … Continue reading

Posted in Current Events, European National Politics | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Euro Update (6): Is the SPD signalling its availability for constitutional reform?

The FT seems to have become the channel of preference for European leaders to debate and lobby each other. After Jean-Claude Juncker and GiulioTremonti advanced the idea for common EU bonds(“E-bonds would end the crisis“), now the two top voices … Continue reading

Posted in A € for your Thoughts, Euro-zone Update, European National Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment