Category Archives: Risk Scenario Analysis

How Income Inequality Leads to and Supports Political Capture

As can be seen in posts pondering the past, present and or future nature of the Chinese, Brazilian or Ancient Roman political economy, capture is inevitably a recurring theme in my analyses. More specifically, I have recently found myself leaning … Continue reading

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How Will Europe’s Crisis End? And When?

This post is based on a report I wrote some time ago about the future of the Euro-Zone crisis. It is divided in four parts: The first offers a recap of the crisis until May 2013. No details as to … Continue reading

Posted in European Integration, Finance, Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

No Early Elections in Germany… But Almost?

In the Summer of 2011 I stuck my neck out and “predicted” early elections in Germany, ahead of the scheduled September 2013 deadline. I was wrong. However, and probably as a consolation gift to myself, I review some a sequence … Continue reading

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Will Catalonia Become Independent Soon?

My answer to the question is no. Eventually I think it will, but not soon. Here’s why:

Posted in Current Events, European Integration, European National Politics, Risk Scenario Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

What’s going on in Spain? – Demand shocks, hysteria and forgetting the ECB

UPDATE (13/04/2012): While the overall tone of this post holds, in the view of its author, there are some errors that were identified an addressed in a followup post. You are highly recommended to read these. The relevant sections are … Continue reading

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The Next Euro-Zone Crisis – The “France-Germany-Greece-Portugal” Disconnect in 2012Q3

I recently wrote a series of posts on the political, economic and social risks in Europe. There was a lot of information in it so it took me some time to digest them. Having done so, I have come to … Continue reading

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Euro-Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis Scenario Analysis – Quantifying Scenarios’ Risk

This post is based on a previous attempt to peek into the future. Having discussed the economic, political and social risks before EU Member States, as well as their consequences, I now turn my attention to the probabilistic quantification of … Continue reading

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