Category Archives: Uncategorized

German Elections – Voter Intention Polls and FDP Blunders

This post reviews the recent voter intention polls in Germany,  the trends over the last 4 years,  the loss of popularity of the FDP and the pyrrhic success of the Greens.

Posted in Current Events, European National Politics, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

How Will Europe’s Crisis End? And When?

This post is based on a report I wrote some time ago about the future of the Euro-Zone crisis. It is divided in four parts: The first offers a recap of the crisis until May 2013. No details as to … Continue reading

Posted in European Integration, Finance, Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Coming up: A story about a little bit of History…

So… In case you are a regular reader of this blog and are disappointed at the scarcity of posts since May, or even since before that, I must apologise for the fact and excuse the inexistent posting by the fact … Continue reading

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No Early Elections in Germany… But Almost?

In the Summer of 2011 I stuck my neck out and “predicted” early elections in Germany, ahead of the scheduled September 2013 deadline. I was wrong. However, and probably as a consolation gift to myself, I review some a sequence … Continue reading

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The Latest Greek Deal – Another Indictment of Intergovernmentalism

This will be a short one about the latest example of the uselessness of intergovernmentalism… So after two failed attempts at finding common ground on Greece on November 13th and on November 20th, the Eurogroup finally came to a provisional … Continue reading

Posted in Euro-zone Update, European Integration, News Round up & Comment, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The week ahead – 25.09.2012 – 05.10.2012

Here are the events for the coming week, with many thanks to Unicredit and to KBC, where you can find plenty of research, reviews of past events, and forecasts. There will be PMIs a-plenty to scare markets after the Spanish … Continue reading

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Visions of the Political Future of Europe: Reviewing Draghi’s Opinion

This is the first in a series of posts about the future of Europe as envisaged by European leaders. It starts with the perspective offered by Mario Draghi, because it would appear to me that his was the first one … Continue reading

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Moral Hazard: Labour Market & Insurance

“Moral Hazard” is a very fashionable concept that has been thrown around a lot since 2007/08 as a result of bad practices by bankers. It is also a common place in discussions of central Bank’s intervention, the Debt Monetisation risks … Continue reading

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Balassa-Samuelson Effect

This post considers the famous and somewhat contentious issue of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and the deviations from it explained by what is known as the Balassa-Samuelson Effect. In doing so it is hoped it will facilitate the understanding of … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Concepts, Inflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment