Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next year, but as usual much will also stay the same. I expect these political facts to ally themselves with economic and social ones and conspire to plunge Europe once again into turmoil. Until then, enjoy the calm before the storm, it seems Europe is looking at some shaky months ahead of itself.

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The UK Referendum on EU Membership: Narrative, Economic Realities and Political Ambitions

As the the British Prime Minister is on the verge of announcing a referendum on continued UK membership of the EU, this post considers the narrative surrounding this issue and concludes that despite the arguments in favour or against, voter intention polls suggest this entire debate is a waste of time, in light of the likely incoming anti-referendum labour (led) government in 2014.

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No Early Elections in Germany… But Almost?

In the Summer of 2011 I stuck my neck out and “predicted” early elections in Germany, ahead of the scheduled September 2013 deadline. I was wrong. However, and probably as a consolation gift to myself, I review some a sequence of events in the summer of 2012 that briefly appeared to set the coalition at odds with its leadership. Eventually events conspired otherwise, but who knows, may be it was closer than it seemed.

Either way, this failed prediction teached me something. Unless they have a good shot at increasing their share of the votes, junior coalition members will not break a government sooner than scheduled. That sounds obvious… Right?

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