How Will Europe’s Crisis End? And When?

This post is based on a report I wrote some time ago about the future of the Euro-Zone crisis. It is divided in four parts: The first offers a recap of the crisis until May 2013. No details as to recent localised crisis are given. Information on this issue is periodically updated in the “Chronology of Euro-Zone Crisis” section of this website. The second part, discusses the options available for the future and makes a cautious and qualified argument in favour of fiscal federalism. The third part describes and uses a simple and tractable scenario analysis approach (mentioned in earlier posts) to map some of the potential future paths ahead. It argues that the single most likely path ahead is “stealth mutualisation”, a number of policies that would not require the paradigm shift constitutional reforms of a new and formal stage of fiscal integration while providing relief to bailout peripheral countries. Finally, the last part concludes with an overview of the future implications for financial markets both directionally and positionally.

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Posted in European Integration, Finance, Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Coming up: A story about a little bit of History…

So… In case you are a regular reader of this blog and are disappointed at the scarcity of posts since May, or even since before that, I must apologise for the fact and excuse the inexistent posting by the fact that my job’s been taking all my time. But to leave it at that is rather incomplete, so let me elaborate a little.

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Posted in European History, European Integration, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next year, but as usual much will also stay the same. I expect these political facts to ally themselves with economic and social ones and conspire to plunge Europe once again into turmoil. Until then, enjoy the calm before the storm, it seems Europe is looking at some shaky months ahead of itself.

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The UK Referendum on EU Membership: Narrative, Economic Realities and Political Ambitions

As the the British Prime Minister is on the verge of announcing a referendum on continued UK membership of the EU, this post considers the narrative surrounding this issue and concludes that despite the arguments in favour or against, voter intention polls suggest this entire debate is a waste of time, in light of the likely incoming anti-referendum labour (led) government in 2014.

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