Macroeconomic Forecasts

Although we all wish we knew the future, we are evidently unable to do so. In the absence of a perennial crystal ball through which to peer into the future, I have gathered the links below to some of the best, most technical, most informed guesses about what the future mightlook like. These should all be taken with “a pinch of salt”. They are no panacea for good judgement (sources of which can be found here, here, here, here, here, here and here). Anyone using them should be reminded of the fact that they reflect the same established economic knowledge that failed to predict the financial crisis. That being said, notwithstanding the noise, they also provide some news, and so deserve some careful consideration.

Governments & International organisations

Banks

Banks all have their research desks, which analyse and over-analyse economic fluctuations and trends in order to understand the underlying environment in which “investment” and “speculation” take place. Most provide forecast tables. All say something about the future.

Reseach Centres

This section presents surveys of economic sentiment. These are “expectations”, not “forecasts”. They matter because they provide an overview of the leading feelings about the future, which may be right or wrong, but certainly have an effect on real variables.

Financial Indicators

This section supplies a list of links to financially based indicators of the future path of macroeconomic variables. To my knowledge, inflation derivatives are somewhat useful indicators of what future inflation will be. A similar comment may be made about Sovereign debt yields in regards to fiscal (and to an extent monetary) policy.

Deutsche Bank IQ:

Bloomberg:

  • UK Breakeven 5, 10, 20, 30 years (for indications of Inflation expectations)
  • USA Breakeven 5, 10, 20, 30 years
  • Government Bond Yields
    • Austria (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Belgium (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Bulgaria (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Cyprus (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Czech Republic (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Denmark (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Estonia (5 year, 10 year)
    • Finland (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • France (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Germany (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Greece (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Hungary (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Ireland (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Italy (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Latvia (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Lithuania (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Luxembourg (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Malta (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Netherlands (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Poland (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Portugal (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Romania (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Spain (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • Sweden (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
    • UK (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)

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