Tag Archives: France

Economic Growth and Military Expenditure: R&D, Consumption, Capture – What Future for Europe?

Before anything else, I want to start by acknowledging the fact that the focus of this article represents a relatively narrow section of what is an enormously interesting, fertile and relevant field of economics with much to contribute to societal welfare and … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Concepts, European History, European Integration, Political Concepts, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

How Will Europe’s Crisis End? And When?

This post is based on a report I wrote some time ago about the future of the Euro-Zone crisis. It is divided in four parts: The first offers a recap of the crisis until May 2013. No details as to … Continue reading

Posted in European Integration, Finance, Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next … Continue reading

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The European Banking Union Negotiations – Supervision

The banking union is a particularly important item in the long term reform agenda of the EU/Euro-Zone, and one that has often been neglected. In a crisis that is characterised by the linkages between public finances and the banking sectors, … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, ECB, European Integration, European Interdependences, Finance, Inflation, Sovereign debt Crisis, Week Ahead | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Divergence in the Euro-Zone: Famous, Obscure and Predictable Facts

In a previous post about the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA), asymmetric shocks, structural problems and the intrinsic need that this creates for the institution of a fiscal union, I argued that incomplete by monetary unions (i.e.: lacking a … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Concepts, Euro-zone Update, European Interdependences, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Elections in May – Greece & France

A week away from the French and Greek polls, what is it looking like? Very similar to previous observations…

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French Presidential Election update: Voter intention Polls on 10 April 2012

With the first round of the French presidential election looming only 2 weeks away, I thought it would be interesting to have a look at the state of voter intention polls and what they mean for the result of the … Continue reading

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The Next Euro-Zone Crisis – The “France-Germany-Greece-Portugal” Disconnect in 2012Q3

I recently wrote a series of posts on the political, economic and social risks in Europe. There was a lot of information in it so it took me some time to digest them. Having done so, I have come to … Continue reading

Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

European Risk Scenario Analysis – Politics, Economics and Social Risks

This post introduces an exercise in Risk Scenario Analysis (RSA), about the future of the Euro-Zone. It introduces the main fragilities in the currency union and discusses them in some detail. The temporal focus of this post is on the … Continue reading

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Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy and Germany)

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. It seems Europe is looking at … Continue reading

Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments