Tag Archives: Germany

The Next Euro-Zone Crisis – The “France-Germany-Greece-Portugal” Disconnect in 2012Q3

I recently wrote a series of posts on the political, economic and social risks in Europe. There was a lot of information in it so it took me some time to digest them. Having done so, I have come to … Continue reading

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European Risk Scenario Analysis – Politics, Economics and Social Risks

This post introduces an exercise in Risk Scenario Analysis (RSA), about the future of the Euro-Zone. It introduces the main fragilities in the currency union and discusses them in some detail. The temporal focus of this post is on the … Continue reading

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Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy and Germany)

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. It seems Europe is looking at … Continue reading

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ECB Market Intervention: The Securities Market Programme (SMP)

Update: As of September 6th, 2012, the SMP was discontinued and the assets held in its accounts were transferred assimilated by the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) accounts. For a preliminary assessment of the OMT, please check this blog post. Otherwise, … Continue reading

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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W8.2012): SMP, Greek bailout, PMIs,noise, forecasts and Italian Debt auctions

Sovereign debt market developments this week were marked by 6 main events: The ECB’s first week without purchases under the SMP (on Monday) The achievement of a deal for the second bailout package for Greece, between Monday and Tuesday The … Continue reading

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ECB Market Intervention: Covered Bond Purchasing Programme (CBPP)

Having looked at the tools available to the ECB, at its balance sheet, and at the transmission of monetary policy into the interbank lending market.after considering financial market failures due to Fractional Reserve Banking, overlending and VaR, I would like … Continue reading

Posted in Aides Memoire, Banking, ECB, Economic Concepts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Week ahead Calendar: 06/02/2012 to 10/02/2012 – Calm week?

Once again, please find below a list of the eventful days ahead. The main sources are Unicredit’s Weekly Focus, Forex Trading weekly calendar, the EU’s general calendar, the EU’s national issuance calendar and many others,  all of which I advise you to consult directly. I found Unicredit’s … Continue reading

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Week Ahead Calendar: 27/01/2012 to 03/02/2012 – Schedules and Optimism

Once again, please find below a list of the eventful days ahead. The main sources are Unicredit’s Weekly Focus, Forex Trading weekly calendar, the EU’s general calendar, the EU’s national issuance calendar and many others,  all of which I advise you to consult directly. I found … Continue reading

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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W4.2012): Greece Negotiations and Portuguese Yields

In the week that that passed the Euro-Zone economy was marked by an emphasis (of the media and of analysts) on positive data releases, both in Europe and in the USA. On the down side, fruitless Greek PSI negotiations caused … Continue reading

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Euro Update(31): Rating cuts, trade surplus, new orders, SGP and ECB

Rating Cuts So as you must know by now, S&P lowered the sovereign debt rating of 10 Euro-zone countries on January 13. This included France, Austria, Italy and Spain. It will be interesting to see what this will mean for … Continue reading

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