Tag Archives: Germany

Divergence in the Euro-Zone: Famous, Obscure and Predictable Facts

In a previous post about the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA), asymmetric shocks, structural problems and the intrinsic need that this creates for the institution of a fiscal union, I argued that incomplete by monetary unions (i.e.: lacking a … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Concepts, Euro-zone Update, European Interdependences, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

OCA Theory – Asymmetric shocks in the Euro-Zone, Long Term Structural Problems & the need for EU Fiscal Union

As growth has found its way back on the discourse of the Euro-Zone sovereign debt crisis, I take the opportunity to briefly describe the simple model in the back of most (decent) economists discussing the long term structural problems underlying … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Concepts, European Integration, European Interdependences, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Why Germans should support the Euro: TIBA, not TINA

I wish I had thought of writing this a long time ago, but unfortunately I did not. Hopefully this post will go some way towards providing a long overdue argument for the benefits of EMU membership to Germany. What I … Continue reading

Posted in European Interdependences, European National Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The Next Euro-Zone Crisis – The “France-Germany-Greece-Portugal” Disconnect in 2012Q3

I recently wrote a series of posts on the political, economic and social risks in Europe. There was a lot of information in it so it took me some time to digest them. Having done so, I have come to … Continue reading

Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

European Risk Scenario Analysis – Politics, Economics and Social Risks

This post introduces an exercise in Risk Scenario Analysis (RSA), about the future of the Euro-Zone. It introduces the main fragilities in the currency union and discusses them in some detail. The temporal focus of this post is on the … Continue reading

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Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy and Germany)

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. It seems Europe is looking at … Continue reading

Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

ECB Market Intervention: The Securities Market Programme (SMP)

Update: As of September 6th, 2012, the SMP was discontinued and the assets held in its accounts were transferred assimilated by the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) accounts. For a preliminary assessment of the OMT, please check this blog post. Otherwise, … Continue reading

Posted in Aides Memoire, ECB, Economic Concepts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 12 Comments