Tag Archives: Italy

How Will Europe’s Crisis End? And When?

This post is based on a report I wrote some time ago about the future of the Euro-Zone crisis. It is divided in four parts: The first offers a recap of the crisis until May 2013. No details as to … Continue reading

Posted in European Integration, Finance, Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next … Continue reading

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Revisiting and correcting my comments on Spanish financing conditions – Primary Market Conditions and CDSs

So I noticed I had made some embarrassing mistakes on my post about recent developments in the Spanish Sovereign debt market. However, while looking for an alternative illustration of Spanish woes, and blatantly engaging in confirmation bias, I came across … Continue reading

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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W13.2012): Spain and EFSF/ESM reform – But what about Italy?

Once again, please find below the most recent developments in selected Euro-Zone sovereign bond markets. You may notice that there’s a change from previous versions. For the sake of facilitating the comparison across  maturities these are all presented in the … Continue reading

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European Risk Scenario Analysis – Politics, Economics and Social Risks

This post introduces an exercise in Risk Scenario Analysis (RSA), about the future of the Euro-Zone. It introduces the main fragilities in the currency union and discusses them in some detail. The temporal focus of this post is on the … Continue reading

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News Round up and Comment – 09/03/2012

11 interesting news trends today: Greece seems to have achieved a 95.7% participation rate in the public debt PSI. This means that 95.7% of the total (€206 Bn) privately held Greek public debt will suffer a haircut of 53% and … Continue reading

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Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy and Germany)

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. It seems Europe is looking at … Continue reading

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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W9.2012): Spanish and Italian bond auctions, LTRO, Greece and Fiscal Compact

Sovereign debt market developments this week were marked by 4 main events: Italy’s successful sovereign bond auction on Monday. Spain’s successful sovereign bond auction on Thursday. Thursday’s LTRO by the ECB. Friday’s Council of the EU meeting. We can see … Continue reading

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ECB Market Intervention: The Securities Market Programme (SMP)

Update: As of September 6th, 2012, the SMP was discontinued and the assets held in its accounts were transferred assimilated by the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) accounts. For a preliminary assessment of the OMT, please check this blog post. Otherwise, … Continue reading

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Week ahead Calendar: 27/02/2012 to 01/03/2012: M3, Italian and Spanish bond auctions, LTRO and CPI

Once again, please find below a list of the eventful days ahead. The main sources are Unicredit’s Weekly Focus, Forex Trading weekly calendar, the EU’s general calendar, the EU’s national issuance calendar and many others,  all of which I advise you to consult directly. I found Unicredit’s … Continue reading

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