Tag Archives: SPD

German Elections – Voter Intention Polls and FDP Blunders

This post reviews the recent voter intention polls in Germany,  the trends over the last 4 years,  the loss of popularity of the FDP and the pyrrhic success of the Greens.

Posted in Current Events, European National Politics, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next … Continue reading

Posted in European National Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

European Risk Scenario Analysis – Politics, Economics and Social Risks

This post introduces an exercise in Risk Scenario Analysis (RSA), about the future of the Euro-Zone. It introduces the main fragilities in the currency union and discusses them in some detail. The temporal focus of this post is on the … Continue reading

Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy and Germany)

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. It seems Europe is looking at … Continue reading

Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

The German Government will Collapse before the Scheduled 2013 Election

I should begin by apologising for not having posted in a long time. The paucity of posts will continue during the month of September, at the end of which it should end, as I hope to resume timely posting. Until … Continue reading

Posted in Sovereign debt Crisis | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Euro Update (6): Is the SPD signalling its availability for constitutional reform?

The FT seems to have become the channel of preference for European leaders to debate and lobby each other. After Jean-Claude Juncker and GiulioTremonti advanced the idea for common EU bonds(“E-bonds would end the crisis“), now the two top voices … Continue reading

Posted in A € for your Thoughts, Euro-zone Update, European National Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment