Some thoughts before a long break

Due to personal reasons, I will not post on this for the next three months or so. I really enjoy writing this blog and am sure to return to it as soon as possible. It is like a diary to me, and I’ve grown accustomed to it. However, I have so many things to do at the moment that I’ve had to sacrifice something. Sadly that burden fell on this website.

Through this blog I’ve been able to clarify a lot of my positions on the EU and European integration in general. I now know how I feel about the role of the EU in terms of Health care and social policy. I know where I stand on European military integration and on European fiscal integration. I’ve had the opportunity to clarify the nature, qualities and short coming of the criticism to the EU. I’ve had the opportunity to consider in depth the issues surrounding the present sovereign debt debt crisis and the negotiation dynamics around it. I even learned a couple of things about sovereign finance by keeping up with the Portuguese debt auctions . I have also had the opportunity to track the opinions of decision makers and specialists. Finally I have compiled a rather comprehensive list of databases for these relevant issues, most of which are freely available. I also organised a list of those EU documents which I subjectively have found to be the most important, in its past and recent history. Finally I’ve compiled an archive of all the texts which in one way or another have helped shape my mind on issues relating to economics, politics and European Integration. If in any way you have an interest in any of these issues I would highly recommend you to follow the links above and explore the blog a bit further. There is a enormous wealth of data and references waiting to be used.

I believe that the months of my bloggish silence will be shaped by the compromises and decisions (or lack thereoff) of the upcoming councils of the EU regarding the future of the EFSF and its offspring the ESM. I believe that they will also be shaped by the monetary policy path chosen by the ECB and by the credibility and transparency of the stress tests being presently carried out under the guidance of the EBA. How these events unfold will determine whether Europe proceeds ahead in “ever closer union”, and if so at what speed.

When I started writing this blog I was enormously frustrated at and wary of the suffering created by unnecessary austerity. This condition is not inevitable and it is not the least  available ill. The problems of the EU could be cured if there were fiscal transfers allied with “Titanium strong conditionality”. High interest rates on rescue loans make no sense and add no value.  I like to bring up “black swans” once in a while because I know that it is these unknowns that end up changing everything. In this spirit I still find it is scarily insightful to think of a world where the bombs would have made it to Merkel and Sarkozy. I understand that European Integration happens in slow incremental steps. However I fear that our leadership’s slow learning pace might be fatal to the project, if events start unfolding too fast. If so, I hope they sin by being too European, not too nationalistic. As Bruegel shows, proactiveness could make the entire difference between solvency or default, survival or extinction.

Since I created this blog in November of last year (so four and a half months ago) it has been visited a total of 2814 times, from more people than myself. I didn’t write with anyone in mind, but I am happy to see people have taken an interest and actually appreciate this blog. I am sure not everyone has agreed with everything I have said and not everyone has even liked what I have said. But for those of you who identify with any of those two groups, I’d like to thank you very much, both for visiting and for not flooding me with ranting messages about how you don’t agree with me and I’m an idiot.

To the rest of you, I leave my gratitute for the attention you saw fit to pay me and a promise to return shortly.

Thank you very much and see you all soon.

Cheers!

Filipe

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3 Responses to Some thoughts before a long break

  1. Ron says:

    Looking forward to you coming back!

  2. Ralf Grahn says:

    I was sorry to see the announcement of a long break, because I had just become accustomed to the thought that I could find both facts and wisdom on this blog.

    I am looking forward to your reappearance.

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