Once again, please find below a list of the eventful days ahead. The main sources are Unicredit’s Weekly Focus, Forex Trading weekly calendar, the EU’s general calendar, the EU’s national issuance calendar and many others, all of which I advise you to consult directly. I found Unicredit’s to be the most complete and accurate freely available one, so I present it to you below (many thanks to them and specially to Nikolaus Kei for compiling this). For once, there’s very little to look forward to next week.
The main events of the week will be (have been) the rubber stamping of the second Greek adjustment programme, the Zew Surveys and the Italian and Spanish debt auctions. The latter two are important because they shall shed some light into the potential effects of the Greek PSI. Although it is not impossible that they will cause a rise in the interests demanded, I believe that none of what has occurred last week was new and that the reforms and commitments that took place in the two countries should be enough to keep interest low. In a sense it will show that the intervention of the ECB in 2011Q4 was enough to contain the crisis to the small countries of the periphery. So, because size matters, attentions will inevitably turn to Portugal, where contagion cannot be dismissed and German support will be tested. While others might be concerned with the CDS market, I am not. The situation could have been bad had the triggering of CACs that took place last friday involved all of the Greek debt. However, it only involved, at most 31.5% of its value. If I understood it well, the +/- 50% haircut was considered voluntary and so not a credit event. Given that the risk to the CDS market was that the shock would be too large to be absorbed, this relatively small debt swap is not, in my view, dangerous.
Until then, here is the debt auction calendar for the week ahead:
Monday, March 12:
- Bulgaria is scheduled to auction BGN 55 Mn in 10 year bonds and 6 month bills .
- Lithuania is scheduled to auction government debt maturing in 2014.
Tuesday, March 13:
Wednesday, March 14:
- Italy is scheduled to auction government debt in 3 year bonds.
- Hungary is scheduled to auction an undisclosed amount of government bonds.
Thursday, March 15:
- Spain is scheduled to auction government debt maturing in 2o15, 2016 and 2018.
- France is scheduled to auction between € 7.5 Bn and € 10.2Bn in government bonds maturing in 2 to 15 years.
- The UK is scheduled to auction £2 Bn in government bonds maturing in 2042.
Have a good week!
- Week Ahead Calendar: 20/01/2012 to 27/01/2012 – Schedules and Hopes