French Presidential Election update: Voter intention Polls on 10 April 2012

With the first round of the French presidential election looming only 2 weeks away, I thought it would be interesting to have a look at the state of voter intention polls and what they mean for the result of the French election.

As the figure below shows, Sarkozy overtook Hollande in the middle of March and is holding on to his lead in the first round of the presidential election. However, Hollande remains the favourite for the second round.

If you are interested in the implications of these polls in relation to the future policies of France, I suggest you consult the “Pour qui voter en 2012” website, which provides a very simple and friendly comparison of the political programmes of Sarkozy and Hollande.

Clearly the future of France depends as much on this election as it does on the upcoming legislative one. According to “Sondages-elections” there have been no surveys of voter intention polls for the legislative election, implying that Presidential election voter intentions are good proxies. May be as we get closer to June we’ll get a better picture, but I doubt that another surprise in the shape of a cohabitation government will emerge.

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One Response to French Presidential Election update: Voter intention Polls on 10 April 2012

  1. iain morse says:

    Don’t assume Hollande will win. In most polls between 15% and 20% of the electorate have not decided. There may also be a high level of abstention-apathy which nearly always reduces the left vote more than the right. The real odds are far closer than polls suggest.

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