It has been a long time since I posted on this blog. Despite my best wishes, I keep getting busy with real work, so my quarterly, monthly and weekly post best hopes have all been in vain. Hopefully there’s still the topical opportunity to write about interesting events. The British Referendum taking place today is one such event.
Unsurprisingly, I am in favour of the UK staying in the EU as you’d know if you had the misfortune of having me as your friend on Facebook, where I would have bombarded you with posts about the campaign during the last weeks. But if you’ve had a look around this website, you might have come across a complain or two about Cameron or someone else from the British establishment saying something I found astonishingly dumb. The fact that I am now on the same argument as Cameron leaves me somewhat confused. I don’t know whether to be happy that he’s gone to the Remain side or whether to be irritated that it took him so long and in that in the process he made so much damage.Anyway, I’ve been thinking about what I want to write because I can’t spend a lot of time on this, so I’ve decided I want to write 4 posts:
- Brexit: Opinions of its effects from Leavers and Remainers
- Who in the UK wants to leave the EU
- Hedge Funds and Brexit – or how to profit from bad political ideas
- On Brexit – My takeaways
I’ve started writing these over the last couple of weeks whenever I’ve had a little bit of time. The idea for the first two posts is that of a time capsule. I want to know who thought what and what motivated the other side. Because one way or the other people have made predictions; some more precise than others. And the beauty of predictions is that you can check them after the fact and assess who was right and who wasn’t, which the childish “I told you so” part of me likes.
The third post is still in this sort of “neener neener” vein. I’m in my 30s now and I’m getting to the point where I realise that I’m not half bad at assessing macroeconomic policies, conditions and their consequences (although admittedly my record on predicting monetary policy decisions is not stellar…):
- I figured the Euro was not going to collapse.
- I figured that QE would not trigger hyper-inflation, be it in the USA, the EZ, the UK or Japan.
- I figured Brazil was overpriced
- I figured China’s crisis.
But above all things, I’ve figured out this: It doesn’t matter whether you are right or wrong. If there’s uncertainty then there are always going to be people doing what appears blatantly stupid. You can convince everybody. More importantly, I have not made the life-style choices that allow me to go around Europe holding townhall discussion meetings to inform and debate everyone everywhere. So all I’m left with is the “neener neener” “I told you so” cynicism, which makes me sound bitter. And I’ve realised that that sucks.
So from now onward I’m going to pursue the only constructive alternative left in this type of situation. I’m going to learn how to bet against these incredibly bad choices and I’m going to try to make some money out of demagoguery and stupidity. I’ll probably come up with some appropriate forum on which to do this in general, as it is unlikely to be a Europe-centric topic of conversation. Nevertheless, for now that’s what I’ll do and I’ll start by doing it here, so that’s what that third post is all about.
There’s no hurry here and I want to get this stuff right, so I’ll probably publish it next Monday. Until then, enjoy the referendum coverage.
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