Tag Archives: Greece

OCA Theory – Asymmetric shocks in the Euro-Zone, Long Term Structural Problems & the need for EU Fiscal Union

As growth has found its way back on the discourse of the Euro-Zone sovereign debt crisis, I take the opportunity to briefly describe the simple model in the back of most (decent) economists discussing the long term structural problems underlying … Continue reading

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Elections in May – Greece & France

A week away from the French and Greek polls, what is it looking like? Very similar to previous observations…

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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W13.2012): Spain and EFSF/ESM reform – But what about Italy?

Once again, please find below the most recent developments in selected Euro-Zone sovereign bond markets. You may notice that there’s a change from previous versions. For the sake of facilitating the comparison across  maturities these are all presented in the … Continue reading

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Week ahead Calendar – 12/03/2012 to 16/03/2012: Calm waters ahead… for a while at least.

Once again, please find below a list of the eventful days ahead. The main sources are Unicredit’s Weekly Focus, Forex Trading weekly calendar, the EU’s general calendar, the EU’s national issuance calendar and many others,  all of which I advise you to consult directly. I found Unicredit’s … Continue reading

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European Risk Scenario Analysis – Politics, Economics and Social Risks

This post introduces an exercise in Risk Scenario Analysis (RSA), about the future of the Euro-Zone. It introduces the main fragilities in the currency union and discusses them in some detail. The temporal focus of this post is on the … Continue reading

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News Round up and Comment – 09/03/2012

11 interesting news trends today: Greece seems to have achieved a 95.7% participation rate in the public debt PSI. This means that 95.7% of the total (€206 Bn) privately held Greek public debt will suffer a haircut of 53% and … Continue reading

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Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy and Germany)

In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. It seems Europe is looking at … Continue reading

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