Tag Archives: Periphery

OCA Theory – Asymmetric shocks in the Euro-Zone, Long Term Structural Problems & the need for EU Fiscal Union

As growth has found its way back on the discourse of the Euro-Zone sovereign debt crisis, I take the opportunity to briefly describe the simple model in the back of most (decent) economists discussing the long term structural problems underlying … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Concepts, European Integration, European Interdependences, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Greek default and exit from the Euro-Zone: Is it a Good or Bad idea?

Since the beginning of the Euro-Zone sovereign debt crisis, talk about the pros and cons of a Greek default and of a Greek exit have been abundant. Economists Nouriel Roubini Rogoff and Feldstein are some of the most prominent standard … Continue reading

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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W10.2012): GDP data, ECB rates & Greek Debt Swap

Sovereign debt market developments last week were marked by one main event, the debt Greek debt swap that took place on Friday, March 9. After the hair cuts to Greek debt agreed last week with the IIF, followed by the … Continue reading

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Euro-Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis Scenario Analysis – Quantifying Scenarios’ Risk

This post is based on a previous attempt to peek into the future. Having discussed the economic, political and social risks before EU Member States, as well as their consequences, I now turn my attention to the probabilistic quantification of … Continue reading

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