Macroeconomic Forecasts

Although we all wish we knew the future, we are evidently unable to do so. In the absence of a perennial crystal ball through which to peer into the future, I have gathered the links below to some of the best, most technical, most informed guesses about what the future mightlook like. These should all be taken with “a pinch of salt”. They are no panacea for good judgement (sources of which can be found here, here, here, here, here, here and here). Anyone using them should be reminded of the fact that they reflect the same established economic knowledge that failed to predict the financial crisis. That being said, notwithstanding the noise, they also provide some news, and so deserve some careful consideration.

Governments & International organisations

• IMF: WEO, April 2012 (click “by Country” and select countries, variables, etc)
• OECD
• European Commission Index of Economic Forecasts
  • The EUROFRAME Network
• European Central Bank – Staff Macroeconomic Projections & Survey of Professional Forecasters
• Bundesbank – Monthly Reports (Check reports of June and December for Outlook for the German Economy – Macroeconomic Projections)
• Banque de France: Les Indicateurs conjoncturels France et zone euro
• Bank of Sweden: Forecasts and Interest Rate Decisions –Current forecast for the repo rate, inflation and GDP
• Portuguese Finance Ministry – Office for Planning, Strategy, Evaluation and International Relations (GPEARI)
• Norwegian National Bank – SAM
• Swiss National Bank – Quarterly Bulletin (Inflation only)
• Bank of England – Monthly Inflation Report
• Federal Reserve of Philadelphia:  Survey of Professional Forecasters & Livingston Survey
• Bank of Japan: Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices
• Central Bank of Brazil: Inflation Report – Inflation Outlook
• Federal Bank of India: Quarterly Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments – Macroeconomic Outlook
• South African Reserve Bank: Quarterly reports
• European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – Forecasts, Macrodata & Transition Indicators

Banks

Banks all have their research desks, which analyse and over-analyse economic fluctuations and trends in order to understand the underlying environment in which “investment” and “speculation” take place. Most provide forecast tables. All say something about the future.

• BNP Paribas
• Credit Agricole
• KBC Corporate – Economic Outlook
• Commerzbank Research (can be found under “Week in Focus”)
• Rabobank Groep
• Unicredit (can be found in the monthly Euro Compass reports)
• Danske Bank
• Handelsbanken
• La Caixa
• BBVA
• Itaú

Reseach Centres

This section presents surveys of economic sentiment. These are “expectations”, not “forecasts”. They matter because they provide an overview of the leading feelings about the future, which may be right or wrong, but certainly have an effect on real variables.

• Markit Data – Good for PMI (Producers and Managers Index), HFI (Household Finance Index), Reports on Jobs and Commercial Development
• ZEW – Databases (Good for Business and Consumer sentiment)
• KOF – Indicators, Forecasts, Surveys
• GFK – German Consumer Confidence
• CESifo – Economic Facts and Figures: Forecasts
  
• MJEconomics – Forecast Survey Highlights
• Davy’s Macroforecasts for the Irish Economy

Financial Indicators

This section supplies a list of links to financially based indicators of the future path of macroeconomic variables. To my knowledge, inflation derivatives are somewhat useful indicators of what future inflation will be. A similar comment may be made about Sovereign debt yields in regards to fiscal (and to an extent monetary) policy.

Deutsche Bank IQ:

• Inflation Swaps (a guide here): UK, Euro (Short & Long), USA

Bloomberg:

• UK Breakeven 5, 10, 20, 30 years (for indications of Inflation expectations)
• USA Breakeven 5, 10, 20, 30 years
• Government Bond Yields
  • Austria (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Belgium (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Bulgaria (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Cyprus (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Czech Republic (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Denmark (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Estonia (5 year, 10 year)
  • Finland (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • France (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Germany (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Greece (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Hungary (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Ireland (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Italy (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Latvia (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Lithuania (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Luxembourg (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Malta (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Netherlands (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Poland (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Portugal (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Romania (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Spain (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • Sweden (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)
  • UK (2 year, 5 year, 10 year)