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Category Archives: Risk Scenario Analysis
How Income Inequality Leads to and Supports Political Capture
As can be seen in posts pondering the past, present and or future nature of the Chinese, Brazilian or Ancient Roman political economy, capture is inevitably a recurring theme in my analyses. More specifically, I have recently found myself leaning … Continue reading
Posted in Aides Memoire, Political Concepts, Risk Scenario Analysis
Tagged Brazil, China, Collective action problems, Elite capture, How does income inequality affect the likelihood of political capture?, Income Distribution, Income inequality, Mancur Olson, Regulatory capture, Rent Seeking, State capture, The Logic of Collective Action
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How Will Europe’s Crisis End? And When?
This post is based on a report I wrote some time ago about the future of the Euro-Zone crisis. It is divided in four parts: The first offers a recap of the crisis until May 2013. No details as to … Continue reading
Posted in European Integration, Finance, Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe
Tagged Crisis, Cyprus, ECB, EU, Euro-zone, Euro-Zone breakup, European Central Bank, European Fiscal Federalism, European Union, EZ, Fiscal Federalism, France, Future of the Euro-Zone, Germany, Greece, How Will Europe’s Crisis End?, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Sovereign debt, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Sovereign debt Yields, Spain, Stealth Mutualisation, When will the Euro-Zone Crisis end?
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No Early Elections in Germany… But Almost?
In the Summer of 2011 I stuck my neck out and “predicted” early elections in Germany, ahead of the scheduled September 2013 deadline. I was wrong. However, and probably as a consolation gift to myself, I review some a sequence … Continue reading
Posted in Media Coverage, Risk Scenario Analysis, Uncategorized
Tagged Angela Merkel, Antagonism to Greece, bailout, CDU, Debt haircut, Euro-Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis, FDP, German attitudes to Greece, German Elections 2013, German Politics, Greece, Greek bailout, Haircut, Horst Seehofer, Mario Draghi, OMT, OMTs, Outright Monetary Transactions, Patrick Doering, Peter Ramsauer, Philipp Roesler, Rainer Bruederle, Summer 2012, Volker Kauder, Voter intention polls, Voter intention surveys
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Will Catalonia Become Independent Soon?
My answer to the question is no. Eventually I think it will, but not soon. Here’s why:
Posted in Current Events, European Integration, European National Politics, Risk Scenario Analysis
Tagged 30 years war, Artur Mas, Catalonia, Financial Crisis and Catalonian Independence, Independent Catalonia, Portugal, Segadores revolt, Spain, Thirty Years War, War of Portuguese Restauration, Will Catalonia become independent
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What’s going on in Spain? – Demand shocks, hysteria and forgetting the ECB
UPDATE (13/04/2012): While the overall tone of this post holds, in the view of its author, there are some errors that were identified an addressed in a followup post. You are highly recommended to read these. The relevant sections are … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis
Tagged ECB, EUREPO, EURIBOR, Game of Chicken, Liquidity demand, Liquidity shocks, Liquidity supply, Mariano Rajoy, Monetary intervention, Sovereign debt crisis in Spain April 2012, Sovereign debt crisis in Spain March 2012, Sovereign debt Yields, Spain, Spanish Eurepo, Spanish Euribor, Spanish Financial sector assets, Spanish public deficit, Spanish sovereign debt, Spanish Sovereign debt yields
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The Next Euro-Zone Crisis – The “France-Germany-Greece-Portugal” Disconnect in 2012Q3
I recently wrote a series of posts on the political, economic and social risks in Europe. There was a lot of information in it so it took me some time to digest them. Having done so, I have come to … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis
Tagged Austrian Elections 2012, France, French Elections 2012, German Elections 2013, Germany, Greek elections 2012, Hollande, Merkel, Merkozy, Portugal, Portugal 2nd Bailout, Portugal Second Bailout, Portuguese Bailout Calendar, Portuguese Bond Yields, Portuguese Debt Maturities, Portuguese GDP, Portuguese Government Debt, Sarkozy, Voter intention surveys
5 Comments
Euro-Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis Scenario Analysis – Quantifying Scenarios’ Risk
This post is based on a previous attempt to peek into the future. Having discussed the economic, political and social risks before EU Member States, as well as their consequences, I now turn my attention to the probabilistic quantification of … Continue reading
European Risk Scenario Analysis – Politics, Economics and Social Risks
This post introduces an exercise in Risk Scenario Analysis (RSA), about the future of the Euro-Zone. It introduces the main fragilities in the currency union and discusses them in some detail. The temporal focus of this post is on the … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis
Tagged Austerity, Berlusconi, ECB, Elections, France, Germany, Greece, Hollande, Interest rates, Italy, Leverage, Liquidity, Liquidity shock, Merkel, Military, Monetary Policy, Monti, PASOK, Police, PS, Reserve ratios, Sarkozy, Social Phase Transitions, Social unrest, SPD, UMP
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Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy and Germany)
In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. It seems Europe is looking at … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Uncategorized
Tagged 2012, 2013, Austrian Elections 2013, Beppe Grillo, Berlusconi, Bulgaria, Calendars, CDU, Czech Republic, Der Linke, Elections, FDP, France, Germany, Greece, Hollande, Italy, Lithuania, Merkel, Monti, New Democracy, Papademos, PASOK, Pirate Party, Slovakia, Slovenia, SPD, Voter intention polls, Voter intention surveys
10 Comments
Place du Luxembourg 
Where you can find me these days
As expected, I have moved to fresher pastures. I have been the Economics Editor at sister publications NordSIP and Ekonamik since the beginning of January 2019 and want to invite you to check out our content. Both publications are focused … Continue reading →