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Monthly Archives: March 2012
Financial Indicators: A guide to MACD and RSI using Bloomberg Interactive Charts
Accurate and minutely predicting any market movements is impossible in general and particularly so to the common man. Notwithstanding this, there are some pointers available. Fortunately, Bloomberg generously provides several “indicators” that can be used in parallel to the indices, … Continue reading
Why Germans should support the Euro: TIBA, not TINA
I wish I had thought of writing this a long time ago, but unfortunately I did not. Hopefully this post will go some way towards providing a long overdue argument for the benefits of EMU membership to Germany. What I … Continue reading
The Next Euro-Zone Crisis – The “France-Germany-Greece-Portugal” Disconnect in 2012Q3
I recently wrote a series of posts on the political, economic and social risks in Europe. There was a lot of information in it so it took me some time to digest them. Having done so, I have come to … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis
Tagged Austrian Elections 2012, France, French Elections 2012, German Elections 2013, Germany, Greek elections 2012, Hollande, Merkel, Merkozy, Portugal, Portugal 2nd Bailout, Portugal Second Bailout, Portuguese Bailout Calendar, Portuguese Bond Yields, Portuguese Debt Maturities, Portuguese GDP, Portuguese Government Debt, Sarkozy, Voter intention surveys
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Greek default and exit from the Euro-Zone: Is it a Good or Bad idea?
Since the beginning of the Euro-Zone sovereign debt crisis, talk about the pros and cons of a Greek default and of a Greek exit have been abundant. Economists Nouriel Roubini Rogoff and Feldstein are some of the most prominent standard … Continue reading
Week ahead Calendar – 12/03/2012 to 16/03/2012: Calm waters ahead… for a while at least.
Once again, please find below a list of the eventful days ahead. The main sources are Unicredit’s Weekly Focus, Forex Trading weekly calendar, the EU’s general calendar, the EU’s national issuance calendar and many others, all of which I advise you to consult directly. I found Unicredit’s … Continue reading
Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W10.2012): GDP data, ECB rates & Greek Debt Swap
Sovereign debt market developments last week were marked by one main event, the debt Greek debt swap that took place on Friday, March 9. After the hair cuts to Greek debt agreed last week with the IIF, followed by the … Continue reading
Euro-Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis Scenario Analysis – Quantifying Scenarios’ Risk
This post is based on a previous attempt to peek into the future. Having discussed the economic, political and social risks before EU Member States, as well as their consequences, I now turn my attention to the probabilistic quantification of … Continue reading
European Risk Scenario Analysis – Politics, Economics and Social Risks
This post introduces an exercise in Risk Scenario Analysis (RSA), about the future of the Euro-Zone. It introduces the main fragilities in the currency union and discusses them in some detail. The temporal focus of this post is on the … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis
Tagged Austerity, Berlusconi, ECB, Elections, France, Germany, Greece, Hollande, Interest rates, Italy, Leverage, Liquidity, Liquidity shock, Merkel, Military, Monetary Policy, Monti, PASOK, Police, PS, Reserve ratios, Sarkozy, Social Phase Transitions, Social unrest, SPD, UMP
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Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy and Germany)
In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. It seems Europe is looking at … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Uncategorized
Tagged 2012, 2013, Austrian Elections 2013, Beppe Grillo, Berlusconi, Bulgaria, Calendars, CDU, Czech Republic, Der Linke, Elections, FDP, France, Germany, Greece, Hollande, Italy, Lithuania, Merkel, Monti, New Democracy, Papademos, PASOK, Pirate Party, Slovakia, Slovenia, SPD, Voter intention polls, Voter intention surveys
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Place du Luxembourg 
News Round up and Comment – 09/03/2012
11 interesting news trends today: Greece seems to have achieved a 95.7% participation rate in the public debt PSI. This means that 95.7% of the total (€206 Bn) privately held Greek public debt will suffer a haircut of 53% and … Continue reading →