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Tag Archives: France
The Next Euro-Zone Crisis – The “France-Germany-Greece-Portugal” Disconnect in 2012Q3
I recently wrote a series of posts on the political, economic and social risks in Europe. There was a lot of information in it so it took me some time to digest them. Having done so, I have come to … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis
Tagged Austrian Elections 2012, France, French Elections 2012, German Elections 2013, Germany, Greek elections 2012, Hollande, Merkel, Merkozy, Portugal, Portugal 2nd Bailout, Portugal Second Bailout, Portuguese Bailout Calendar, Portuguese Bond Yields, Portuguese Debt Maturities, Portuguese GDP, Portuguese Government Debt, Sarkozy, Voter intention surveys
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European Risk Scenario Analysis – Politics, Economics and Social Risks
This post introduces an exercise in Risk Scenario Analysis (RSA), about the future of the Euro-Zone. It introduces the main fragilities in the currency union and discusses them in some detail. The temporal focus of this post is on the … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis
Tagged Austerity, Berlusconi, ECB, Elections, France, Germany, Greece, Hollande, Interest rates, Italy, Leverage, Liquidity, Liquidity shock, Merkel, Military, Monetary Policy, Monti, PASOK, Police, PS, Reserve ratios, Sarkozy, Social Phase Transitions, Social unrest, SPD, UMP
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Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy and Germany)
In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. It seems Europe is looking at … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Uncategorized
Tagged 2012, 2013, Austrian Elections 2013, Beppe Grillo, Berlusconi, Bulgaria, Calendars, CDU, Czech Republic, Der Linke, Elections, FDP, France, Germany, Greece, Hollande, Italy, Lithuania, Merkel, Monti, New Democracy, Papademos, PASOK, Pirate Party, Slovakia, Slovenia, SPD, Voter intention polls, Voter intention surveys
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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W8.2012): SMP, Greek bailout, PMIs,noise, forecasts and Italian Debt auctions
Sovereign debt market developments this week were marked by 6 main events: The ECB’s first week without purchases under the SMP (on Monday) The achievement of a deal for the second bailout package for Greece, between Monday and Tuesday The … Continue reading
ECB Market Intervention: Covered Bond Purchasing Programme (CBPP)
Having looked at the tools available to the ECB, at its balance sheet, and at the transmission of monetary policy into the interbank lending market.after considering financial market failures due to Fractional Reserve Banking, overlending and VaR, I would like … Continue reading
Posted in Aides Memoire, Banking, ECB, Economic Concepts
Tagged Bank Lending Survey, Banking crisis, CBPP, CBPP1, CBPP2, Cointegration, Covered Bond Purchasing Programme, Covered Bonds, ECB, France, Germany, iBoxx, iShare, Italy, Monetary Policy Transmission, Portugal, Spain, Stabilisation
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Week Ahead Calendar: 27/01/2012 to 03/02/2012 – Schedules and Optimism
Once again, please find below a list of the eventful days ahead. The main sources are Unicredit’s Weekly Focus, Forex Trading weekly calendar, the EU’s general calendar, the EU’s national issuance calendar and many others, all of which I advise you to consult directly. I found … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized, Week Ahead
Tagged Debt auctions, EU Council, EU Council Meetings, France, Germany, Greece, Inflation, Italy, Labour Market, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Spain
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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W4.2012): Greece Negotiations and Portuguese Yields
In the week that that passed the Euro-Zone economy was marked by an emphasis (of the media and of analysts) on positive data releases, both in Europe and in the USA. On the down side, fruitless Greek PSI negotiations caused … Continue reading
Merkel and Sarkozy’s Letter to Van Rompuy laying out the Dec 5 Agreement
So I found the joint Franco-German press conference from December 5, at the website of the French Presidency (so in French) and confirmed (08:15 into the video) that the reporters did not misrepresent their statements. Merkel and Sarkozy had no … Continue reading
Accommodating the ECB and the Democratic Costs of Intergovernmentalism
This post offers a short note clarifying the dynamics of the asymmetric relationship between the ECB and the governments of the Euro-area, its disparity with the USA and the UK and how this explains the lip service that is being … Continue reading
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