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Tag Archives: Portugal
How Will Europe’s Crisis End? And When?
This post is based on a report I wrote some time ago about the future of the Euro-Zone crisis. It is divided in four parts: The first offers a recap of the crisis until May 2013. No details as to … Continue reading
Posted in European Integration, Finance, Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe
Tagged Crisis, Cyprus, ECB, EU, Euro-zone, Euro-Zone breakup, European Central Bank, European Fiscal Federalism, European Union, EZ, Fiscal Federalism, France, Future of the Euro-Zone, Germany, Greece, How Will Europe’s Crisis End?, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Sovereign debt, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Sovereign debt Yields, Spain, Stealth Mutualisation, When will the Euro-Zone Crisis end?
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Will Catalonia Become Independent Soon?
My answer to the question is no. Eventually I think it will, but not soon. Here’s why:
Posted in Current Events, European Integration, European National Politics, Risk Scenario Analysis
Tagged 30 years war, Artur Mas, Catalonia, Financial Crisis and Catalonian Independence, Independent Catalonia, Portugal, Segadores revolt, Spain, Thirty Years War, War of Portuguese Restauration, Will Catalonia become independent
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Divergence in the Euro-Zone: Famous, Obscure and Predictable Facts
In a previous post about the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA), asymmetric shocks, structural problems and the intrinsic need that this creates for the institution of a fiscal union, I argued that incomplete by monetary unions (i.e.: lacking a … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Concepts, Euro-zone Update, European Interdependences, Uncategorized
Tagged Divergence, Euro-zone divergence, France, GDP, Germany, Government Bond Yields, Greece, Inflation, Ireland, Portugal, Potential GDP, real Exchange Rate, Spain, ULB, Unemployment, Unit Labour Costs
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The Next Euro-Zone Crisis – The “France-Germany-Greece-Portugal” Disconnect in 2012Q3
I recently wrote a series of posts on the political, economic and social risks in Europe. There was a lot of information in it so it took me some time to digest them. Having done so, I have come to … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis
Tagged Austrian Elections 2012, France, French Elections 2012, German Elections 2013, Germany, Greek elections 2012, Hollande, Merkel, Merkozy, Portugal, Portugal 2nd Bailout, Portugal Second Bailout, Portuguese Bailout Calendar, Portuguese Bond Yields, Portuguese Debt Maturities, Portuguese GDP, Portuguese Government Debt, Sarkozy, Voter intention surveys
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ECB Market Intervention: The Securities Market Programme (SMP)
Update: As of September 6th, 2012, the SMP was discontinued and the assets held in its accounts were transferred assimilated by the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) accounts. For a preliminary assessment of the OMT, please check this blog post. Otherwise, … Continue reading
Posted in Aides Memoire, ECB, Economic Concepts
Tagged Belgium, Debt Monetisation, ECB, EFSF, Fine-tuning Operations, Fixed Term Deposits, Germany, Government Bonds, Government debt, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Monetary Economics, OMO, Open Market Operations, Portugal, Qualitative Easing, Quantitative Easing, Securities Market Programme, SMP, Sovereign bonds, Sovereign debt, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Spain, Stabilisation, Sterilisation, Sterilised Debt Monetisation
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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W8.2012): SMP, Greek bailout, PMIs,noise, forecasts and Italian Debt auctions
Sovereign debt market developments this week were marked by 6 main events: The ECB’s first week without purchases under the SMP (on Monday) The achievement of a deal for the second bailout package for Greece, between Monday and Tuesday The … Continue reading
ECB Market Intervention: Covered Bond Purchasing Programme (CBPP)
Having looked at the tools available to the ECB, at its balance sheet, and at the transmission of monetary policy into the interbank lending market.after considering financial market failures due to Fractional Reserve Banking, overlending and VaR, I would like … Continue reading
Posted in Aides Memoire, Banking, ECB, Economic Concepts
Tagged Bank Lending Survey, Banking crisis, CBPP, CBPP1, CBPP2, Cointegration, Covered Bond Purchasing Programme, Covered Bonds, ECB, France, Germany, iBoxx, iShare, Italy, Monetary Policy Transmission, Portugal, Spain, Stabilisation
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Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W4.2012): Greece Negotiations and Portuguese Yields
In the week that that passed the Euro-Zone economy was marked by an emphasis (of the media and of analysts) on positive data releases, both in Europe and in the USA. On the down side, fruitless Greek PSI negotiations caused … Continue reading
Portuguese Labour Market Reforms: The Table of Contents
The Portuguese Government reached a “Growth, Competitiveness and Employment Compromise” today with social partners (employers and employee organisations). The daily “Sol” made a copy of the text available online, in Portuguese. Labour market reform is extremely important for the recovery … Continue reading
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