Tag Archives: Portugal

3 lessons from the Scottish referendum: the insult, the fear and the pork – where to from here?

This post could have also been named “How to campaign: confirmation bias, framework effects and the flypaper effect“. But I’m trying to go for a less academic tone these days, so I thought I should at least give the post … Continue reading

Posted in European Integration, European National Politics, History, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

How Will Europe’s Crisis End? And When?

This post is based on a report I wrote some time ago about the future of the Euro-Zone crisis. It is divided in four parts: The first offers a recap of the crisis until May 2013. No details as to … Continue reading

Posted in European Integration, Finance, Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Will Catalonia Become Independent Soon?

My answer to the question is no. Eventually I think it will, but not soon. Here’s why:

Posted in Current Events, European Integration, European National Politics, Risk Scenario Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Divergence in the Euro-Zone: Famous, Obscure and Predictable Facts

In a previous post about the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA), asymmetric shocks, structural problems and the intrinsic need that this creates for the institution of a fiscal union, I argued that incomplete by monetary unions (i.e.: lacking a … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Concepts, Euro-zone Update, European Interdependences, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Next Euro-Zone Crisis – The “France-Germany-Greece-Portugal” Disconnect in 2012Q3

I recently wrote a series of posts on the political, economic and social risks in Europe. There was a lot of information in it so it took me some time to digest them. Having done so, I have come to … Continue reading

Posted in Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

ECB Market Intervention: The Securities Market Programme (SMP)

Update: As of September 6th, 2012, the SMP was discontinued and the assets held in its accounts were transferred assimilated by the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) accounts. For a preliminary assessment of the OMT, please check this blog post. Otherwise, … Continue reading

Posted in Aides Memoire, ECB, Economic Concepts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 13 Comments

Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area (W8.2012): SMP, Greek bailout, PMIs,noise, forecasts and Italian Debt auctions

Sovereign debt market developments this week were marked by 6 main events: The ECB’s first week without purchases under the SMP (on Monday) The achievement of a deal for the second bailout package for Greece, between Monday and Tuesday The … Continue reading

Posted in Current Events, Weekly Bond Yield developments in the Euro Area | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment