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Tag Archives: Greece
ECB Decisions: Deposit Facility rate, APP, Unequal Supply Growth & Oil
The first week of December will probably be remembered as “that time the ECB thought rates weren’t negative enough and decided to drop them by another 15 bps “. However, the central bank did more than just lower the rates: … Continue reading
Considerations About the Greek Crisis: Bad Media, Amateur Greeks, Lazy Creditors and Geopolitical Fears
Watching the diplomatic and financial downwards spiral regarding the debt crisis in Greece, I am not particularly impressed or comforted by the skills of politicians or economists on both sides of the isle, or about the media. The inability of … Continue reading
A New Phase in Euro-Zone Crisis – Zero Coupon Perpetuities for Greece?
I don’t have an enormous amount of time to consider the implications of the Greek election yesterday in a tremendous amount of detail. So the following are my thoughts, disorganised and potentially incoherent.
How Will Europe’s Crisis End? And When?
This post is based on a report I wrote some time ago about the future of the Euro-Zone crisis. It is divided in four parts: The first offers a recap of the crisis until May 2013. No details as to … Continue reading
Posted in European Integration, Finance, Risk Scenario Analysis, Sovereign debt Crisis, Uncategorized, Visions of the Political Future of Europe
Tagged Crisis, Cyprus, ECB, EU, Euro-zone, Euro-Zone breakup, European Central Bank, European Fiscal Federalism, European Union, EZ, Fiscal Federalism, France, Future of the Euro-Zone, Germany, Greece, How Will Europe’s Crisis End?, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Sovereign debt, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Sovereign debt Yields, Spain, Stealth Mutualisation, When will the Euro-Zone Crisis end?
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Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany
In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next … Continue reading
Posted in European National Politics
Tagged 2013. Austrian Elections 2013, Beppe Grillo, Berlusconi, Bulgaria, Calendars, CDU, Czech Republic, Der Linke, Elections, FDP, France, Germany, Greece, Hollande, Italy, Lithuania, Merkel, Monti, New Democracy, Papademos, PASOK, Pirate Party, Slovakia, Slovenia, SPD, Voter intention polls, Voter intention surveys
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No Early Elections in Germany… But Almost?
In the Summer of 2011 I stuck my neck out and “predicted” early elections in Germany, ahead of the scheduled September 2013 deadline. I was wrong. However, and probably as a consolation gift to myself, I review some a sequence … Continue reading
Posted in Media Coverage, Risk Scenario Analysis, Uncategorized
Tagged Angela Merkel, Antagonism to Greece, bailout, CDU, Debt haircut, Euro-Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis, FDP, German attitudes to Greece, German Elections 2013, German Politics, Greece, Greek bailout, Haircut, Horst Seehofer, Mario Draghi, OMT, OMTs, Outright Monetary Transactions, Patrick Doering, Peter Ramsauer, Philipp Roesler, Rainer Bruederle, Summer 2012, Volker Kauder, Voter intention polls, Voter intention surveys
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Divergence in the Euro-Zone: Famous, Obscure and Predictable Facts
In a previous post about the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA), asymmetric shocks, structural problems and the intrinsic need that this creates for the institution of a fiscal union, I argued that incomplete by monetary unions (i.e.: lacking a … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Concepts, Euro-zone Update, European Interdependences, Uncategorized
Tagged Divergence, Euro-zone divergence, France, GDP, Germany, Government Bond Yields, Greece, Inflation, Ireland, Portugal, Potential GDP, real Exchange Rate, Spain, ULB, Unemployment, Unit Labour Costs
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Place du Luxembourg 
The Latest Greek Deal – Another Indictment of Intergovernmentalism
This will be a short one about the latest example of the uselessness of intergovernmentalism… So after two failed attempts at finding common ground on Greece on November 13th and on November 20th, the Eurogroup finally came to a provisional … Continue reading →